The probability of one of the next five years surpassing the limit is now 50%, up from 20% in 2020
The year the world breaches for the first time the 1.5C global heating limit set by international governments is fast approaching, a new forecast shows.
The probability of one of the next five years surpassing the limit is now 50%, scientists led by the UK Met Office found. As recently as 2015, there was zero chance of this happening in the following five years. But this surged to 20% in 2020 and 40% in 2021. The global average temperature was 1.1C above pre-industrial levels in 2021.