Poorest states should be given until 2050, says research aiming to set out fair way of ending fossil fuel economy
Rich countries must end all oil and gas production in the next 12 years, while the poorest nations should be given 28 years, to provide a fair transition away from fossil fuels, according to a study.
The report, led by Prof Kevin Anderson from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at Manchester University, found that wealthy countries such as the UK, US and Australia had until 2034 to stop all oil and gas production to give the world a 50% chance of preventing devastating climate breakdown, while the poorest nations that are also heavily reliant on fossil fuels should be given until 2050.
The 19 “highest-capacity” countries, with average non-oil GDP per capita of more than $50,000, must end production by 2034, with a 74% cut by 2030. This group produces 35% of global oil and gas and includes the US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia and the United Arab Emirates.
The 14 “high-capacity” countries, with average non-oil GDP per capita of nearly $28,000, must end production by 2039, with a 43% cut by 2030. They produce 30% of global oil and gas and include Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Kazakhstan.
Eleven “medium-capacity” countries, with average non-oil GDP per capita of $17,000, must end production by 2043, with a 28% cut by 2030. They produce 11% of global oil and gas and include China, Brazil and Mexico.
Nineteen “low-capacity” countries with average non-oil GDP per capita of $10,000, must end production by 2045, with an 18% cut by 2030. They produce 13% of global oil and gas and include Indonesia, Iran and Egypt.
Twenty-five “lowest-capacity” countries, with average non-oil GDP per capita of $3,600, must end production by 2050 with a 14% cut by 2030. They produce 11% of global oil and gas and include Iraq, Libya, Angola and South Sudan.